PT Kontakperkasa Futures – Hari ini, pasar emas menghadapi gejolak yang mendebarkan dengan harga logam mulia yang diperkirakan akan menjadi volatil pekan ini, menjelang pengumuman data inflasi Amerika Serikat (AS). Pada perdagangan hari Senin, 11 September 2023, pukul 06:16 WIB, harga emas di pasar spot berada di posisi US$ 1917,49 per troy ons atau mengalami penurunan sebesar 0,02%. Pelemahan ini menambah tren negatif emas yang sudah melemah sebanyak 0,07% pada perdagangan pekan sebelumnya.
Secara keseluruhan, harga emas telah merosot sebanyak 1,08% dalam satu minggu terakhir, mengakhiri tren positif yang telah berlangsung selama dua pekan sebelumnya.
Pekan ini, harga emas rawan mengalami guncangan karena mendekati pengumuman data inflasi AS untuk periode Agustus, yang dijadwalkan akan dirilis pada Rabu, 13 September 2023.
Menurut data dari Trading Economic, inflasi umum diperkirakan akan melonjak hingga 3,6% secara tahunan (year-on-year/yoy) pada bulan Agustus 2023, naik dari angka sebelumnya sebesar 3,2% yoy. Jika prediksi ini terwujud, ini akan menjadi kenaikan kedua setelah mencapai titik terendah sebesar 3% yoy pada bulan Juni lalu.
Sementara itu, inflasi inti diperkirakan akan melandai menjadi 4,3% yoy dibandingkan dengan bulan sebelumnya yang mencapai 4,7% yoy. Meskipun mengalami penurunan, angka inflasi umum dan inti secara keseluruhan masih jauh dari target bank sentral AS, The Federal Reserve (The Fed), yang berada di sekitar 2%.
Jika inflasi melebihi ekspektasi pasar, harapan pelaku pasar terhadap pelonggaran suku bunga semakin akan merosot.
Namun, tampaknya mencapai target inflasi tersebut masih menjadi tantangan bagi The Fed tahun ini, terutama karena harga minyak mentah global yang terus meningkat akibat pasokan minyak yang terbatas. Harga minyak sempat mencapai US$ 90 per barel pekan lalu, dan kenaikan harga minyak dapat memicu inflasi di AS.
Selain data inflasi, AS juga akan merilis data tenaga kerja terkait klaim pengangguran pada Kamis, 14 September 2023, untuk periode mingguan yang berakhir pada 9 September 2023. Diperkirakan bahwa klaim pengangguran akan meningkat menjadi 226.000 dibandingkan dengan 216.000 pekan sebelumnya.
Kenaikan pengangguran diharapkan dapat menjadi faktor positif bagi The Fed di tengah proyeksi kenaikan inflasi. Data tenaga kerja juga menjadi salah satu pertimbangan utama bank sentral AS dalam menentukan arah kebijakan suku bunga.
Meskipun Perangkat CME Fedwatch menunjukkan bahwa 93% investor yakin The Fed akan mempertahankan suku bunga acuan di kisaran 5,25%-5,5% dalam pertemuan bulan September ini, sekitar 42% memprediksi kemungkinan kenaikan suku bunga sebesar 25 basis poin.
“Ilya Spivak, seorang analis dari Tastylive, mengatakan, ‘Jika data tersebut memburuk dan mendorong The Fed untuk tetap hawkish (kebijakan ketat), itu akan menjadi hal yang paling buruk bagi harga emas,'” seperti yang dilaporkan oleh Reuters. – PT Kontakperkasa Futures
Sumber : cnbcindonesia.com
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