PT Kontakperkasa Futures – Harga emas melonjak setelah data terbaru mengindikasikan penurunan drastis dalam penciptaan lapangan kerja di Amerika Serikat (AS). Kenaikan ini memiliki potensi mendukung langkah-langkah pelonggaran yang mungkin diambil oleh bank sentral AS, The Federal Reserve (The Fed).
Pada perdagangan Selasa (29/8/2023), harga emas di pasar spot ditutup pada posisi US$ 1.937,12 per troy ons, mencatat kenaikan hampir 1% atau 0,91%.
Tingkat penutupan ini adalah yang tertinggi sejak awal Agustus 2023, menciptakan tren positif yang telah berlangsung selama tiga pekan terakhir. Bahkan, penguatan ini juga mengikuti kenaikan pada perdagangan hari sebelumnya.
Pada perdagangan Rabu (30/8/2023) pukul 05:44 WIB, harga emas terus menguat dan berada di posisi US$ 1.937,18 per troy ons, naik sebesar 0,002%.
Kenaikan harga emas ini terjadi seiring dengan laporan yang menunjukkan penurunan tajam dalam Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary (JOLTS) di AS, yang jauh di bawah ekspektasi pasar. JOLTS merupakan pengukuran lapangan pekerjaan baru di luar sektor pertanian AS selama satu bulan.
Pada bulan Juli 2023, jumlah lapangan pekerjaan baru yang diukur oleh JOLTS turun sebanyak 338.000 menjadi 8,83 juta. Angka tersebut merupakan yang terendah sejak Maret 2021 dan berada di bawah ekspektasi pasar sebesar 9,47 juta.
Penurunan jumlah lapangan pekerjaan baru ini juga mengindikasikan tren negatif yang telah berlangsung selama tiga bulan berturut-turut.
Kondisi ini dapat memberikan sinyal bahwa pasar tenaga kerja di AS sedang mengalami penurunan aktivitas, dan ekonomi AS mungkin sedang melambat. Harapan muncul bahwa inflasi akan melandai, sehingga The Federal Reserve (The Fed) mungkin akan mengambil langkah-langkah untuk melonggarkan kebijakan moneter.
Data terkait tenaga kerja dan inflasi merupakan faktor utama yang dipertimbangkan oleh The Fed dalam membuat keputusan kebijakan.
Menanggapi situasi ini, Giovanni Staunovo, seorang analis dari UBS, menyatakan, “Jika ekonomi AS melambat, ada kemungkinan bahwa The Fed akan menahan suku bunga, dan mereka mungkin akan mempertimbangkan risiko bahwa ekonomi AS akan semakin merosot jika kenaikan suku bunga terus berlanjut dalam jangka pendek.”
Berdasarkan survei CME FedWatch Tool, 85,5% pelaku pasar memprediksi bahwa The Fed akan mempertahankan suku bunga pada bulan September mendatang. Sementara itu, 14,5% lainnya memperkirakan ada kenaikan sebesar 25 basis poin.
Carsten Fritsch, seorang analis dari Commerzbank, menjelaskan bahwa kenaikan harga emas juga didukung oleh penurunan tekanan dari para spekulan. “Fakta bahwa harga emas terus naik sejak pekan lalu menunjukkan bahwa tekanan jual yang berasal dari spekulan telah mereda,” ujar Fritsch. – PT Kontakperkasa Futures
Sumber : cnbcindonesia.com
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