Kontakperkasa Futures – Harga kontrak batu bara untuk bulan September mengalami koreksi pada pekan ini, meskipun sebelumnya berhasil mencatatkan rekor penguatan beruntun terpanjang dalam 13 tahun terakhir, sejak Desember 2009.
Menurut data dari Refinitiv, harga batu bara kontrak September, yang diperdagangkan di ICE Newcastle, ditutup pada level US$ 159,5 per ton pada hari Jumat (25/8/2023), mengalami kenaikan sebesar 2,24% pada hari terakhir perdagangan pekan ini. Meskipun mengalami koreksi dua hari beruntun sebelumnya, harga batu bara pada akhir pekan masih berada dalam zona merah dengan penurunan sebesar 0,78% dalam sepekan.
Meskipun terjadi koreksi, kenaikan harga pada akhir pekan ini menunjukkan adanya tren penguatan yang masih kuat akibat ketidakmampuan pasokan untuk memenuhi permintaan. Setelah mengalami koreksi selama dua hari, harga batu bara tetap berlanjut menguat. Selama pekan ini, harga batu bara mengalami penguatan sebanyak 3 kali dan penurunan sebanyak 2 kali.
Sebelumnya, harga batu bara mencatat rekor yang harus terpatahkan pada pekan ini. Rekor terakhir kali tercipta pada akhir Desember 2010, atau 12 tahun yang lalu. Bahkan pada tahun 2022, ketika harga batu bara mengalami lonjakan yang signifikan, tidak ada penguatan yang mencapai 12 hari berturut-turut. Penguatan terlama hanya berlangsung selama sepuluh hari berturut-turut.
Berbagai faktor telah mempengaruhi pergerakan harga batu bara selama pekan ini. Sentimen dari China, yang belum mencapai puncak musim panasnya, serta potensi permintaan yang kuat dari India, dan permasalahan dalam industri batu bara di berbagai negara, semuanya berkontribusi terhadap dinamika pergerakan harga.
Tidak hanya itu, situasi cuaca panas yang ekstrem di China juga telah berdampak signifikan terhadap permintaan batu bara. Suhu tinggi menyebabkan penggunaan pendingin ruangan meningkat drastis, yang memerlukan tenaga dari sumber energi ini. Di samping itu, suhu panas juga menyebabkan penurunan pasokan listrik tenaga air dan peralihan ke batu bara sebagai sumber energi.
Dengan masih berlanjutnya cuaca panas yang ekstrem di China, kemungkinan besar permintaan yang tinggi akan terus mendorong harga batu bara untuk menguat. Hal ini juga membawa potensi bagi industri untuk terus tumbuh, yang pada gilirannya dapat mendukung penguatan harga batu bara.
Selain China, India juga memiliki peran penting dalam dinamika harga batu bara. Dengan permintaan yang terus meningkat, terutama dari pembangkit listrik berbasis batu bara, prospek impor batu bara akan semakin meningkat, yang pada akhirnya dapat mendorong harga naik. Keputusan pemerintah Perancis untuk memperpanjang jam operasional pembangkit listrik batu bara juga memberikan dorongan positif terhadap harga batu bara di Eropa.
Dengan demikian, meskipun mengalami koreksi pada pekan ini, tren penguatan harga batu bara masih tetap berlanjut, didukung oleh faktor-faktor seperti permintaan yang tinggi dan kekurangan pasokan. Potensi harga batu bara yang lebih tinggi di masa depan juga dipicu oleh dinamika cuaca ekstrem, perubahan dalam kebutuhan energi, dan perkembangan industri di berbagai negara. – Kontakperkasa Futures
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