PT Kontakperkasa – Harga batu bara mengalami penurunan tajam setelah mengalami kenaikan yang signifikan. Meskipun sentimen umumnya masih positif, penurunan ini dianggap sebagai bagian dari koreksi wajar pasca-rally.
Menurut data dari Refinitiv, kontrak Oktober untuk harga batu bara ICE Newcastle ditutup pada posisi US$ 158 per ton atau mengalami penurunan sebesar 2,26% dalam perdagangan pada Rabu (30/8/2023).
Harga pasir hitam juga turun setelah mengalami penguatan selama tiga hari berturut-turut. Penurunan ini telah membawa harga batu bara di bawah level psikologis penting yaitu US$ 160.
Sebelumnya, harga batu bara telah mengalami penguatan selama 12 hari perdagangan berturut-turut, namun tren ini telah terputus.
Rekor Penguatan Harga Batu Bara Tersendiri
Pekan sebelumnya, harga batu bara berhasil mencatat rekor penguatan sendiri, dengan tren kenaikan yang berlangsung selama 12 hari berturut-turut. Ini merupakan rekor terpanjang dalam kurun waktu lebih dari satu dekade, sejak Desember 2009.
Perlu dicatat bahwa rekor ini juga terjadi pada akhir Desember 2010, yang berarti ini adalah kali kedua dalam 12 tahun terakhir bahwa harga batu bara berhasil mencapai penguatan selama periode yang panjang. Bahkan saat harga batu bara mengalami lonjakan yang signifikan pada tahun 2022, tren kenaikan tidak bertahan selama 12 hari berturut-turut, melainkan hanya selama sepuluh hari.
Sentimen Penggerak Utama dari China
Harga batu bara kemarin dipengaruhi oleh sentimen dari China, yang merupakan konsumen terbesar batu bara di dunia. Meskipun negara ini terus mendukung energi terbarukan, China masih memberikan izin untuk pembangunan dua pembangkit listrik tenaga batu bara setiap minggunya. Analis meyakini bahwa China masih tetap bergantung pada batu bara sebagai sumber energi meskipun ada upaya untuk beralih ke sumber energi yang lebih bersih.
Menurut analisis dari Global Energy Monitor (GEM) dan Pusat Penelitian Energi dan Udara Bersih (CREA), China telah memberikan izin untuk pembangunan 52 Giga watt (GW) pembangkit listrik tenaga batu bara baru selama paruh pertama tahun 2023. Hal ini terjadi meskipun pemerintah China telah berkomitmen untuk mengurangi emisi karbon dan mencapai emisi nol pada tahun 2060.
Pengaruh Dari Konsumen Terbesar Kedua, India
Penurunan harga batu bara juga dipengaruhi oleh India, yang merupakan konsumen terbesar kedua batu bara di dunia. Perusahaan listrik India menggunakan campuran batubara domestik berkualitas rendah dan impor batu bara berkualitas tinggi. Hal ini telah mengakibatkan permintaan terhadap batu bara berkualitas tinggi yang terkait dengan Indeks ICE Newcastle tidak mengalami kenaikan yang signifikan. Dampaknya adalah permintaan global untuk batu bara berkualitas tinggi masih terbatas.
Perbaikan Hubungan China dan Australia Berdampak Negatif
Perbaikan hubungan antara China dan Australia juga telah mempengaruhi harga batu bara. Kembalinya aktivitas perdagangan komoditas antara kedua negara ini telah mengakibatkan diversifikasi permintaan dari China. Ini menghasilkan peningkatan pasokan global dan lebih banyak pilihan impor batu bara untuk China.
Pengaruh Permasalahan LNG Australia
Selain itu, pasar juga mengamati perkembangan permasalahan terkait LNG Australia. Australia adalah eksportir terbesar LNG di dunia, dan ketidakpastian dalam pasokan ini dapat mempengaruhi kebutuhan Eropa yang sangat bergantung pada sumber energi gas menjelang musim dingin.
Pada tanggal 7 September, pekerja di fasilitas LNG Gorgon dan Wheatstone di Australia akan berhenti melakukan tugas-tugas tertentu sebagai bentuk protes. Ini dapat berdampak pada pasokan gas alam ke Eropa, yang juga turut mempengaruhi harga gas alam.
Kesimpulan
Harga batu bara mengalami penurunan tajam setelah periode kenaikan yang panjang. Sentimen dari China dan India, dua konsumen terbesar batu bara di dunia, serta perbaikan hubungan antara China dan Australia, berkontribusi terhadap penurunan harga. Permasalahan terkait LNG Australia juga turut mempengaruhi pasar energi. Perlu diingat bahwa meskipun terjadi penurunan, sebagian kalangan melihat ini sebagai koreksi wajar setelah penguatan yang signifikan sebelumnya. – PT Kontakperkasa
Sumber : cnbcindonesia.com
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